Forrester: Global Online Retail Sales To Grow 8.9% Annually, Reaching $6.8 Trillion In 2028
Retailers’ investments in genAI, the rise of online marketplaces, and higher digital literacy will continue to drive global online retail sales growth
The report further states that retail e-commerce maturity varies globally. Advanced economies including the US, the
Looking ahead at 2024 and beyond, Forrester expects continued growth momentum for online retail sales globally. Following are some noteworthy highlights from the report, broken down by global region.
The
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In the US, online retail sales are expected to reach
$1.6 trillion by 2028, accounting for 28% of total US retail sales. -
E-commerce is more mature in the US compared to
Canada , with Canadian online retail sales expected to reach$83 billion by 2028.Canada lags the US in e-commerce penetration due to lower population density, a smaller market size, and slower consumer adoption. -
In
Latin America , online retail sales in the top six countries —Brazil ,Mexico ,Argentina ,Colombia ,Peru , andChile — will grow from$109 billion in 2023 to$192 billion by 2028.
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In Western European countries — including
Austria ,Belgium ,Denmark ,Finland ,France ,Germany ,Greece ,Ireland ,Italy ,the Netherlands ,Norway ,Portugal ,Spain ,Sweden ,Switzerland , and theUK — online retail sales are expected to grow from$508 billion in 2023 to$773 billion in 2028, with online retail penetration increasing from 15% to 20%. TheUK will continue to be the biggest market for retail e-commerce, followed byGermany ,France ,Italy , andSpain . -
In
Eastern Europe , online retail penetration is half that ofWestern Europe . Forrester forecasts that online retail sales for the top five Eastern European countries —Russia ,Poland , theCzech Republic ,Romania , andHungary — will increase from$72 billion in 2023 to$126 billion in 2028, withRussia andPoland leading the region.
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In
Asia-Pacific , online retail sales for the top five countries —China ,South Korea ,Japan ,India , andAustralia — are expected to increase from$2.2 trillion in 2023 to$3.2 trillion in 2028, withChina leading the region.China andSouth Korea are the top two countries globally in terms of e-commerce penetration and will each have online retail penetration of more than 40% by 2028. -
In Southeast Asia’s top six countries —
Indonesia ,Thailand ,Vietnam ,Malaysia ,the Philippines , andSingapore — retail e-commerce sales reached$93 billion in 2023 and will rise to$193 billion by 2028 to capture 17.4% of total retail sales.Indonesia leads the region in online retail penetration, followed byMalaysia andSingapore .The Philippines andVietnam will see a CAGR of more than 20% over the next five years, outpacing other countries in the region.
“The growth of online marketplaces, social commerce, livestream selling, and direct-to-consumer commerce will accelerate global online retail sales growth over the next five years,” said
Resources:
- Read Forrester’s report, Global Retail E-Commerce Forecast, 2024 To 2028 (client access required).
- Learn more about Forrester’s Global Retail E-Commerce Forecast, 2024 To 2028, in this blog.
About Forrester
Forrester (Nasdaq: FORR) is one of the most influential research and advisory firms in the world. We help leaders across technology, customer experience, digital, marketing, sales, and product functions use customer obsession to accelerate growth. Through Forrester’s proprietary research, consulting, and events, leaders from around the globe are empowered to be bold at work — to navigate change and put their customers at the center of their leadership, strategy, and operations. Our unique insights are grounded in annual surveys of more than 700,000 consumers, business leaders, and technology leaders worldwide; rigorous and objective research methodologies, including Forrester Wave™ evaluations; more than 100 million real-time feedback votes; and the shared wisdom of our clients. To learn more, visit Forrester.com.
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Source: Forrester